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A lot hinges on 1%. And for the first time since we’ve started tracking, asking rents fell.
This month, we’re taking a look at Tidewater Gardens relocation data. And finally, some good news for renters: there are tepid signs that rent relief is on the way.
Average and median asking rents for all unit types fell in Hampton Roads to $1,842 in July from $1,855 in June. Median asking rents fell to $1,747 from $1,760. Average asking rent is still up year-over-year by $30. One bedroom rents are also up this month.
Overall asking:
Average Rent: $1,842.80 | Median Rent: $1,747
Studio:
Average Rent: $1,345 | Median Rent: $1,376
1 Bedroom:
Average Rent: $1,591 | Median Rent: $1,620
2 Bedroom:
Average Rent: $1,784 | Median Rent: $1,761
3 Bedroom:
Average Rent: $2,240 | Median Rent: $2,200
4+ Bedroom:
Average Rent: $2,670 | Median Rent: $2,547
Five years ago today, the Urban Renewal Center in Norfolk hosted a forum on the history of gentrification in Norfolk. Called “Changing Tides: Gentrification in the City of Norfolk,” the URC brought together panelists to examine the history of racism and urban redevelopment in the city. At the time, the Norfolk Redevelopment and Housing Authority (NRHA) was moving forward with plans to demolish a block of 618 public housing units, called Tidewater Gardens, and build mixed-income apartments in their place.
It’s been five years since the forum, nearly four since the first building came down, and a year since Norfolk broke ground on the new apartments. So it’s worth asking where did everyone from Tidewater Gardens end up?
The Claim
For their part, the NRHA claims that over 90% of Tidewater Gardens households relocated to neighborhoods with a poverty rate less than 40%
That’s true! Sort of. Data provided by the NRHA lists 618 units in Tidewater Gardens. The NRHA dashboard has relocation data on 614 of those households.
305 households took a Housing Choice Voucher, also known as Section 8, which allows tenants to rent in the private market, typically paying a portion of their income to rent while the government pays the rest.
207 households relocated to Project Based and Public Housing, where rental assistance is offered at specific apartments while they live there.
The remaining 102 households are listed as “Deceased,” “Eviction,” “Moved without notice,” “Purchased a Home,” or “Rented Elsewhere;” the bulk (64 households) falling under the latter.
Some of these households relocated to different cities. However, the NRHA does not specify where in those cities households moved. For example, 12 households moved to Virginia Beach. The NRHA says 4 of these households moved to neighborhoods with poverty below 40%. Without specific locations we’ll have to take their word for it.
We do have specific data on 481 households that relocated in Norfolk. Using either a voucher or relocating through public housing:
98 households relocated to neighborhoods with 40% poverty or higher
383 households relocated to neighborhoods with less than 40% poverty.
So, around 80% of households that relocated in Norfolk moved to neighborhoods with poverty rates below 40%. While 20.4% of households relocated to neighborhoods with poverty rates of 40% or more.
Data: US Census/ACS/CityWork
A large number of households relocated to neighborhoods where the poverty rate is around 39%. Technically, 39 is smaller than 40. Though, we’re asking that 1% to do a lot of heavy lifting.
Zooming out, we find that 239 households relocated to neighborhoods with poverty rates over 30%. In other words, half of all Tidewater households that stayed in Norfolk ended up in neighborhoods with more than a 30% poverty rate.
For the resettled families in Norfolk, many ended up in neighborhoods with poverty rates just under 40%, indicating a clustering effect where relocations managed to avoid the highest poverty areas (above 40%), but only marginally. Many households still moved to neighborhoods with relatively high poverty.
One way to think about this is that for every 1% increase in the neighborhood poverty rate, the number of relocated households in that area increases by approximately 0.55 households
To be sure, a considerable number of households did relocate to areas with less than 20% poverty, and those neighborhoods tend to be more racially diverse. That can be a good thing. But part of the challenge is that while landlords legally cannot refuse a housing voucher, they can choose to rent to another applicant based on different screening methods (like credit checks). Still, in terms of concentrated poverty, voucher holders fared better than public housing residents.
Around 30% of households that relocated under public housing ended up in high-poverty neighborhoods (poverty rates above 30%).
Around 11.92% of households relocated using vouchers ended up in high-poverty neighborhoods.
*The data provided by the NRHA is from October 10th, 2022, and is based on calculations of relocation by Census Tract
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